Bryan Slater

Director of Education

Distribution

 

All Headteachers

 

 

The attached document is provided for your information:

INFORMATION

Title

Long term pupil number forecasts 2003-2012

Summary of contents

Details of the arrangements for short-term and long-term pupil forecasts, new developments and how to access your forecast data.

Associated documents

EsiNet: School Management » School management Resources » Pupil Number Forecasts

Date

June 2003

Effective from

Immediate

LEA Contact

Alan Smith

(

01603 224455

E-mail address

alan.smith.edu@norfolk.gov.uk

 

Norfolk Self Review reference

7. How well is the school led and managed?

8. How well does the school use its resources?

 

Document reference

MI 126/03

 

 

This Management Information sheet may be found on ESINET at the following address:

 

http://www.esinet.norfolk.gov.uk/cadmin/misheet/

Long-term Pupil Number Forecasts 2003-2012

 

I am pleased to advise you that this year’s long-term pupil number forecasts are now available.

 

During the year you are likely to have 4 pupil number forecasts: 2 short-term forecasts looking forward to next September only and 2 long-term forecasts looking forward over the next 9 years.

 

The short-term forecasts

These two short-term forecasts are likely to have the greatest accuracy given they make the best use of the most recent data available and look only a few months into the future.

 

The long-term forecasts

The remainder of the document is concerned with explaining the purpose of the two long-term forecasts, how they are generated and the forecasts themselves for your school.

 

The timing for the production of the long-term forecasts means the process has to be started prior to the January PLASC figures being available. Currently the most accurate available figures prior to PLASC are the September count for high schools and the previous academic year’s May figures for primary phase schools. The May figures have to be used as this is the only point in the year when every primary phase school has a full cohort of pupils. However, from academic year 2003/4, with the introduction of a single point of admission, it should be possible to move to use September figures for all schools. This will improve accuracy and mean that we can move from the 9 year forecast provided this year to a full 10 year forecast.

 

The primary purpose of the LEA’s long-term forecasts is to identify trends in growth or reduction in pupil population so that appropriate long-term planning decisions can be made. Given this purpose, absolute accuracy is not essential although every care is taken to get the long-term forecasts as accurate as possible. It is important that schools can agree with the LEA that the trends identified by the long-term forecast figures are correct so that planning decisions are based on a sound foundation. To help ensure this agreement it is important that everyone concerned understands the way the long-term forecasts are generated, their purpose and limitations.

The two long-term forecasts are called Catchment figures and Demand figures. What these are and how they are generated is explained along with your forecast figures, please see below.

Catchment figures: The LEA will use these as the key indicator of school growth and reduction in size. The Catchment figures will also usually be used to determine the optimum size for any new school development.

Demand figures: Currently the Demand figures give the upper (or lower) limit of potential pupil population mainly as a consequence of parental preference. Whilst these figures are less important they will often trigger a need to look at school size and admissions and so will be considered in planning decisions.

It is important to note that in the current financial climate with the existing backlog of building work required, the LEA will, in the main, determine optimum school size based on the Catchment figures only. This is to ensure there is a place for every child in their local school.

 

New developments for this year

We have introduced further developments this year to both improve the range of data and the understanding of the outcomes.

 

Nine year forecasts instead of five year forecasts. This longer range will benefit those with planning responsibilities. However, it is acknowledged that as the forecasts are built around current figures, the further into the future we project, the less reliable the forecasts become. Nevertheless the trends shown by the figures are helpful in many planning scenarios. The forecasting period will be extended to 10 years in the next round of forecasts.

 

Using the September pupil count for high school forecasts. Until this year the forecasts have been based on the most recent full pupil count. This is in May of the previous year i.e. already one academic year old. This had to be done due to the multiple intakes of pupils through the year in the primary phase, so May is the first time most schools have a complete intake. However, from September 2003 nearly all schools will have a single point of intake, which will be in September. To assist in moving towards this new arrangement we have forecasted future high school figures based on their September 2002 pupil number count. From next year we hope that we will be using the September pupil count for all schools.

 

Improved information on new building. You can now get information on which local building sites we have included in the forecasts, their size and their current status in planning terms. This information is in addition to the numbers of pupils forecast to arise from the new building.

 

Revised ratios of children to new build. Last year the County Council Planning & Transportation Department completed extensive surveys of a number of new building estates to re-evaluate the ratios they use for the numbers and ages of children likely to come from new building developments. The outcome has led to a significant upward change to these ratios particularly for high schools.

A note to high schools: The annual revision of new building multipliers has led to a large up rating of the multipliers for high schools. The multipliers have been applied in retrospect so both existing and planned sites now contribute to your overall figures. In some cases this has led to significant increases in overall pupil numbers.

 

Corrections to catchment and feeder school details: following feedback from schools last year we recognised that some of the data being used to determine catchment areas and feeder schools was no longer correct. This has led to the withdrawal of all such databases with only one, corrected database now being available. However the changes have impacted on the way in which parental preferences are calculated for this year. As parental preferences use the previous two year’s data it means that this year one data set would be wrong, so for this year only parental preferences have been calculated based on 2002-3 data alone.

 

Improved information about the forecasting process. Following feedback from schools last year and from Ofsted inspection, much more detailed advice on the forecasting process is available in different formats. We need a shared understanding about the process and its outcomes; this additional information together with discussions in individual schools and through conferences is intended to move this forward.

 

Additional information

·        Meetings with schools and senior officers where forecast figures show specific issues will be set up during this term.

·        Schools to be re-organised in Gt.Yarmouth and the market towns will receive a second set of figures in due course for their re-organised status.

 

Where are my forecasts?

You will appreciate from the above that the level of detail and amount of information has significantly increased. However we are mindful of the need to keep bureaucracy to a minimum, we have therefore decided to try and strike an acceptable balance by putting all of the information on EsiNet; in this way you can look at as much or a little of the information as you feel necessary. It will also always be there for you and other colleagues to access as and when needed. Your figures are on EsiNet in the School Management Resources section under ‘Pupil Number Forecast Figures’. All the figures and documents can be selectively printed in school or we will print them for you and post them on (see the contact detailed below).

 


We sincerely welcome your feedback on the forecasting process itself, on your figures and on the supporting information. The feedback is most helpful if you can point out specific issues on to which a possible remedy can be focussed. Please e-mail or write to…

 

Alan Smith   e-mail: alan.smith.edu@norfolk.gov.uk