Pupil Number Forecasts 2007-2012

I am pleased to advise you that this year's long-term pupil number forecasts are now available.

The two main purposes of the LA's long-term school roll forecasts are:

1. To identify trends in pupil population so that appropriate long-term planning decisions can be made.

2. 2.To provide information to make initial financial allocations to schools. These allocations will be subsequently corrected in line with January census data.

These forecasts are new in two respects: First, they are based on a new process that has been developed in consultation with school representatives. Secondly, for the first time, they seek to provide forecasts of actual rolls.

Each school is provided with two sets of forecast figures: Catchment figures, which seek to forecast the number of children in the school's catchment area. Roll forecasts, which seek to provide forecasts of the actual school roll based on recent trends.

Although every care is taken to produce accurate forecasts, it is not a precise science. We hope that the online notes accompanying the forecasts will assist schools in understanding how the forecasts are generated as well as their scope and limits.

We acknowledged that, as the forecasts are built around current figures, the further into the future we project, the less reliable the forecasts become.

Although the figures cannot be changed once they have been published, we welcome feedback and discussion to enable us to refine our forecasts in future years.

For further information please contact Ed Bober